Chris Smith

My Feedback: (2)

From what I see at jet meets and many of my friends, price increases would have absolutely no effect on the jet hobby. Folks are spending larger and larger sums every year. It may mean instead of buying and building 2-3 jets a year they might buy and build 1-2 jets per year.

j.duncker

My Feedback: (2)

letting this one run for now but it is being closely monitored and will be shut down if it degenerates into a political mud slinging match.

dionysusbacchus

My Feedback: (25)

This has been tried in the past by the Republicans, surprised you don't remember it! The Tariff Act of 1930, otherwise known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. It had the opposite effect, it reduced the flow of goods into the U.S., prevented other countries from earning American currency to buy American goods. Unemployment was made worse in the industries that could no longer export goods to Europe. Many countries retaliated by raising their own tariffs, within a few years world trade had fallen more than 40 percent.

I will not pay higher prices for the same products, either Chinese, American or other. It will be just more scratch builds for me.

rhklenke

My Feedback: (24)

Dave,

You know as well as I do that back a few years ago, a 200-class engine *did* cost $4300 - wait no, it cost over $5000! Before the advent of the "Chinese" ARF for $4300, ARFs were $7000 or $8000. If you wanted to buy a jet for less than $4000, you bought a *kit* and *built* it.

If the prices do go up that much, and I'm not sure they will, then guys will adjust their expectations. That means that a P-120 sized jet (which is all I fly because I have an 8' trailer - can't afford a bigger one...) many not be considered "small" any more...

Bob

David Searles

My Feedback: (49)

Bob,

A few years ago our economy was much stronger, disposable income higher. This year a Chinese ARF mfg put new model developments on hold because of poor sales. SM kit sales are down considerably. Turbine sales, even with lower prices also off 30-40%.

It's a new world.

David S

Dr Honda

My Feedback: (4)

no prob. edited it.

David Searles

My Feedback: (49)

J. Dunker,

Close the thread. Seems some can't refrain from political pontificating, or respect the intent of the thread.

rhklenke

My Feedback: (24)

David,

Now that seems to be a different problem. However, I have not seen a significant downturn in actual jet flying - attendance at the 4 East-Coast jet events I went to was up, in some cases dramatically. Also, I see *a lot* more "big" planes out there than several years ago (most that have not been certified according to the LTMA rules, but that's a different problem).

I wonder if its world-wide sales that are down, or just US?

Bob

Scott Douglas

As a non-American I can't help but think that if the supposed tariffs WERE introduced then outside suppliers would have little choice but to lower their own prices. The market for larger models seems primarily aimed at the us market (size & storage/price ) so anything detrimental to that has to mean a price reduction?

j.duncker

My Feedback: (2)

As one of the culprits has already retracted I will give it a day and see if others follow suit.

Chris Nicastro

My Feedback: (3)

I saw this thread this morning and all day I've been thinking it over. I'm not reacting to the election, it is what is and I'm in favor of the outcome. That being said I see potential for domestic manufacturing as a result of policy changes that hopefully materialize in the near future. In the RC hobby industry I have many years of experience designing and producing products from chargers, LiPo's, trucks, motorcycles, boats, and foamy planes plus all the accessories and option parts for all the above. I've worked with licensing companies for RC car bodies and hand modeled car bodies for HPI Racing, over 30 licensed bodies. So, I get it, many challenges to face if your trying an all American RC brand made in the USA.

It would take a while to get a company started and gain market share and support. The product line would have to be diversified in order to create a cushion between the product designed and developed and the product meant to generate capital. You would then earn a blended margin while you grow the unique product line and reputation of the company.
The other issue is what to make. Any models patterned after US planes can be subject to licensing issues because the majors got smart and bought the rights in order to earn money. So the risk is real and a letter from them is just a click away. That leaves having to specialize in foreign planes which can be less popular - fact. For example the most popular WW2 fighter model sold is a P-51D. The most popular jet model is probably the F-16. Both models are fairly easy to produce but the licensing these companies expect is prohibitive, they think your selling high volume like Hot Wheels and the fee structure reflects that. They generally do not negotiate well either, it's their way or pound sand in my experience.
If you follow the BVM business model they don't produce any scale ARF's, just kits, unless the BVM Mig 15 and F86 ARF's are still going forward, I have not checked recently. They seem to be pushing for the offshore white box option more lately.

Their strength is in the sport jet area for sure. Smart, since you don't run the risk of licensing or legal issues except getting copied yourself.
However, market demand is high for scale jets as has been pointed out already so this dictates a strong direction for the product line before you get started.


Can a US company specialize in non US models and be successful in the scale jet market? Use this approach to skirt around US licensing issues.


On the subject of Turbines this poses a big challenge with capital investment if your going to machine everything in house. If you own a machine shop already and this can be dovetailed into the operation then that would be a head start for sure. Otherwise the proposal is pretty staggering. The cost to set up a shop from scratch I can't even guess at right now as commercial property values in my small town are going up quickly. These property owners are trying to charge west coast prices for a small town which is ridiculous to me if you want to promote local business development.


So I looked at this from the cottage industry point of view. Can you outsource most of the major parts and keep in house costs low? Can you follow Just In Time manufacturing practices for this application? It's a fascinating idea and I would love to do this but I lack the capital to do it. Would a Kickstarter or Go Fund Me program raise enough funding? Are there angel investors interested in this area of product development?
I see potential in using micro turbines for other applications outside of RC, a path to growth after a proven product is in UAS for commercial and government applications.


Anyway, my head's been spinning with ideas and I'm in full support of Made in the USA.
I don't really want to produce a sport jet, they don't interest me, my passion is in scale jets. I just know the agents from big name aerospace companies walk around trade shows looking to see who is infringing on the trademarks in their portfolio. I've spoken with them at shows before.

MaJ. Woody

My Feedback: (28)

Do you think there would be any tariffs applied to your parcel when you are sending your turbine back for service? I just bought a new Cheetah SE and am wondering what happens when I need to send it back for servicing.

David Searles

My Feedback: (49)

Good question, honestly don't know. Mexico is one of the trading partners that seem to be getting the better side of trade deals. I don't know the details of NAFTA but it is apparently up for re-negotiation.

Chris pretty much hit the purpose of my initial questions with his comments. I'm thinking if maybe the future might hold an opportunity to bring some form of hobby mfg back to the states. Still a lot of hurdles, as Chris brought up. But if we could compete with foreign costs, I know we could mfg quality.

Getting close to retirement, just thinking out loud as to what to do with myself.��

David S

erh7771

My Feedback: (30)

Large and small turbine jet hobby is already over the the impulse buy price for the 70% of US income earners. The foamy turbines get it in the 55% impulse buy price (I'm being conservative) but that's for someone who's been flying a second.

Take the price up 20% and that's it ... the "afford to crash" price goes through the roof and there's less people with new stuff at the jet meets

Until

... people will have to learn to build again (not install or assemble) and then jets made in the US become more affordable and there will be more makers of kits in the US. The prices become 1/3rd of the Chinese and more people are flying EDF with any step up from the graphenes or a LiHV graphenes we're the performance becomes "good enough". Right now one can get 22lbs EDF installed for 800 skins with packs isn't bad at all... 30 min charges with US Designed I-Chargers.

Just less NEW jets built per year per modeler but more affordable, forced to have new skill sets and modlers get 1 or 2 new jets a year vs 3 - 5

Some good things, some bad things at frist

TimD.

My Feedback: (207)

Agree , a good portion of the hobby will be put into a position to BUILD their own like the old days. When a true modeler NOT assembler developed their own or built a plane from kits. Now a days it is Assembly, from a box mostly plug and play components.
I think there could be RC made in the US if the economy warrants it and some see the possibility to turn a profit at it. Makin $$ from the hobby is pretty tough as most everyone wants MORE for less and do not want to put effort into the outcome.
I sold kits for a few years and made $$ at it here and there, at least enough to support my habit and travel to shows. Then the Arf' imports killed it for me, I feel one deserves more than $10 an hr for their time to build kits. I now do as everyone else, buy an arf then rebuild it to be airworthy as my opinion warrants. I expect a plane to last 20 yrs or more and NOT just one season, This is why BVM planes cost as much as they do. Only time will tell to see if it is feasible.

Eddie P

My Feedback: (4)

If we see large price increases I think the simple answer is the guys who are in the hobby for the long term will stay, possibly alter the scale and magnitude of what they are flying, or build more... and the folks who are in it for the bling who can't sustain the prices will move along down the road to the next best thing (be it more reality TV, Fantasy Football or perhaps take up some other hobby). Then of course the short answer is the used marketplace will all the sudden regain it's value and people will throw away less and fix more.

I don't see the hobby dying a fast death but it will certainly not be in the boom times of the last 15 years anymore.

A short question that answers itself is how many young folks do we see flying at jet rallies that are self sustaining, and not just doing it because dad is? Not many. Those are the same guys who will be taking over where we left off. In other words, about 1 guy for every 10 that leave in the next 20 to 30 years.

wfield0455

My Feedback: (7)

I don't know. If someone is comfortable dropping $20K into a Jet, I really don't think an extra 30% will stop them. It's a hobby and most will spend what they can, when they can. A price increase will result in fewer new models being sold but I just don't see people dramatically changing their habits to start building again. Lets face it kits won't get any cheaper, imported ARFs will simply get more expensive. I don't know of many Jet kits but in the Giant scale world it's typical for the materials to put together a short kit, less, paint, covering, hardware, servo, etc servos to cost significantly more than a very high quality ARF. I doubt Jet kits will be much different. If you have a design and need to route and laser cut parts, etc, pack it up and ship it and you want to feed your family it's still going to cost money. The reason most people buy ARFs instead of building kits is because ARFs ares a much better value.

A prime example is my JTEC 40% Truworthy Pitts biplane short kit. It cost about $1200 and I needed about another $500 worth of wing tubes, Phenolics and Balsa before I could start building anything. That doesn't include Paint, Covering, Hardware, Linkages, let alone Engine, Servos, Batteries and Receiver. I could have EASILY purchased a very nice 40% ARF for significantly less but this is what I wanted so this is what I purchased. If someone doesn't want to build, I don't see increasing the price of ARFs changing their minds unless it's to double the price. The only reason I see to build a kit anymore is because you want to or because an ARF simply isn't available.

wildnloose

Your'e talking about a man who's own brand of clothes are made overseas, and he uses overseas products in his buildings. I really doubt he is going to make any decisions to disrupt his own business. Don't get me wrong, it will be nice, and I will be the first in line to buy US, but lets keep it real. Well, I won't be first, have to get a job first before wife lets me buy rc stuff again.

mavrick

My Feedback: (1)

From what I see it's not going to be a lot different to what we are paying here in Australia now just about everything we buy is in US dollars currently the Ausy dollar is worth around 76/77 au cents and then any thing that is over $1000 attracts a 10% GST so it is what it is it certainly hasn't stopped us from enjoying our hobby
Cheers
Mav

luv2flyrc

My Feedback: (6)

I can tell you guys what happens when prices go up 35-38% because I have experienced it over the last few years. Mine was due to currency fluctuation, yours may be due to tariffs but, the price increase is the same. I'm in Canada and we buy all our jet stuff from you fellows in the states. Even the couple of Canadian dealers sell in US dollars. A few years ago, our dollar was roughly on par with yours. Now your $ costs 1.38Can $ to buy. My income is still the same so, this is a 38% price increase.

We still buy jets. The guys with unlimited cash don't care and still buy all the stuff they want. I'm not one of those guys so, Instead of buying a new airframe every year, I buy one every two or three.

I can't think of anyone that has bailed out on jets because of the price increase but, we buy less and the used market is popular.

Mike

SECRET AGENT

My Feedback: (18)

A successful business man once told me that people will find the money for the things that they want, regardless of price. Guys 30 years ago (the old balsa bashers) would never have imagined the cost of models today. They would have said prices that high will kill our hobby, yet here we are still flying away.

wfield0455

My Feedback: (7)

Actually RC has probably never been less expensive. I've been flying for nearly 50 years and when I started a basic 4 channel, .25 powered glow plane cost about $500 to build and get airborne. That was a few weeks pay for the average guy at the time.
Today guys buy a Spektrum bind n fly airplane for $400 ready to go and think it's a fortune. When you consider the cost and time commitment back in the day stuff today is practically free by comparison. Back then you REALLY had to want to fly and there will always be guys that want it just as much and will find a way to pay for what they want.

Chris Nicastro

My Feedback: (3)

There is something to be said for good quality products. They cost more to produce, maybe, and they sell for more money in retail. However, the reputation and respect those products earn is priceless.
You can buy nice, or buy twice!
If a US product was more expensive but made correctly, looked right and worked right then customers would have to pay attention.
A friend of mine was a gunsmith and he worked for a shop that made only precision actions for competition, match grade. They won matches and set records but they never strayed from one thing, high quality products and excellent customer service.
This would have to be the bedrock on which a US company would need to be built to gain market share.

stevekott

Has that train already left the station?

I've been in the manufacturing business for 40 years here in all places CALIFORNIA!

In the late 80's the South Coast Air Quality Management District went a long way to kill manufacturing here in SoCal. McDonnell Douglas was no longer able to paint airplanes here so they started sending them up to Renton WA to be painted by Boeing. Then Boeing bought the company, and moved 40,000 jobs out of SoCal to Renton, WA, St Louis, MO and lately to Charleston, SC. Much more business friendly climates.

I too was forced to move the portions of my business that involved gluing and Expanded Polystyrene foam to Mexicali Mexico just to stay in business.

In the 90's China started coming on strong and it became cheaper to have products made over there then to try and make them here. But China is not what it used to be. At one point 50% of what we sold was made in China 20% Mexico and 30% USA.

Today things have changed drastically. We got into higher end products. We invested a lot in automation and capital equipment. Most of the "bottom feeder" chinese products were no longer profitable for us.

Today only 8% of what we sell is made in China. 22% is made in Mexico and 70% is made here in California. The key to that big shift has been how many $/hour worth of product an employee can make. With the factory being more automated and the product being of higher quality and selling for more hourly wages are less significant. Other things like distribution costs and warehousing come into play where being made in America has an advantage.

Nobody runs a business to be politically correct. It's done for survival and profit. If the government came up with incentives to keep the jobs here and offset some of the costs with tax breaks and less regulations that could really change things.

High tariffs on everything coming out of China would be a financial disaster. But perhaps a very modest tariff and then using that money to reward the entrepreneurs in America for every manufacturing job they brought back home.

As far as our toy jets go, there is a lot of work to building them and kind of a limited demand. But the material costs are really low. If a clever entrepreneur could figure out how to pull the labor hours out of building a jet and his local government would be encouraging rather than killing him with regulations on painting and fiberglassing you might someday see a USA comeback.

Just my 2 cents

Chris Nicastro

My Feedback: (3)

Here in Coeur d'Alene Idaho the local manufacturing scene is pretty encouraging. There are aerospace companies producing composites here. Even Burt Rutan is here developing his new amphibious plane concept. There are several gun manufacturers producing CNC AR parts and others producing holsters. I'm pretty sure starting a composite RC plane company would not be too difficult here. I have ideas about how to make it composites school too. There's a lot of interest in this area around here.
I was considering starting with a 50cc composite performance sport plane which doesn't currently exist in the hobby. Then move into scale jets and so on, forward.
The reality is the cost of space alone is prohibitive for example 4000sqft on 5 acres is selling $800000. Other buildings are renting for $3000-$5000 a month of various sizes. I can get a Garage Town style space for $350 to $500 a month but it's small at around 45x18, no bathroom, just power.

Anyway it would take some time to make tools and molds and test planes before you sell one. All the while burning up cash before you have a brand or sales.