Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
04-09-2006, 10:01 AM
#26
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ORIGINAL: mr_matt
Hi Eddie,
Very nice, but I have a question.
The person is standing on the ground, not on the surface of the sphere, and the plane has to hit the ground, so shouldn't the area of possible impact be more like a great circle formed by the intersection of the ground plane and some sphere?
Hi Eddie,
Very nice, but I have a question.
The person is standing on the ground, not on the surface of the sphere, and the plane has to hit the ground, so shouldn't the area of possible impact be more like a great circle formed by the intersection of the ground plane and some sphere?
Not on the ground, not on the sphere. The pilot is represented by 5 square feet on the
Surface of the sphere.. I have had dinner with many of you and some jet pilots are much larger
Than 5 sq/ft.. Anyway… If you look at the picture of the sphere, you can think of the pilot as
Being one of those squares.
One thing no one has picked up on is… The assumption that the plane goes into a 100% random direction.
This assumption does not take into account gravity. All crashing planes are being pulled to the earth, well
Guess where the pilot is… He is always below the plane, So you can say, as the plane crashes it will
Be pulled towards the pilot. My probabilities do not take this into account. This effect is somewhat limited
Because we do not fly right over our heads, either way, its not perfect.
04-09-2006, 10:09 AM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ORIGINAL: siclick33
I am not a statistition but you seem to suggest that there is an equal probability of the model crashing in any direction. I would suggest that it is more likely that it will crash in the direction of it's travel, and the chances of it turning around, although definately possible, are lower. Therefore, if the pilot never points the model at himself the chances of being hit are significantly lower than you suggest.
I am not a statistition but you seem to suggest that there is an equal probability of the model crashing in any direction. I would suggest that it is more likely that it will crash in the direction of it's travel, and the chances of it turning around, although definately possible, are lower. Therefore, if the pilot never points the model at himself the chances of being hit are significantly lower than you suggest.
towards the pilot, and %50 of the time its point away and because of that I can neglect direction of travel.
04-09-2006, 10:09 AM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
I like those calculations and hope that they make their way to some of the policy makers in the AMA. The current turbine rules are way too restrictive and as it turns out it’s for no good reason either.
04-09-2006, 10:19 AM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
now im not a really smart guy but im thinking that arent the odds of getting hit by your own plane pretty high against getting hit...and why does it have to be a turbine plane any plane can go wildly out of control...i think that your odds of getting smacked in the eye with a park flyer would be higher because you fly closer to your self...thats just geography....bigger faster planes require more space...putting the plane away from you more often.....im more concerned about taking out the poor guy walkin his dog on the other side of the park....but like i said im not the sharpest sharpy in the sharpy box...just my opinion
04-09-2006, 11:02 AM
#31
RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
Because the plane takes off and lands on the same runway, this mean %50 of the time its pointing
towards the pilot, and %50 of the time its point away and because of that I can neglect direction of travel.
towards the pilot, and %50 of the time its point away and because of that I can neglect direction of travel.
My whole point of mentioning this is that you can easily reduce the probability of hitting yourself (or someone near you) by the way that you fly and the way that you position the model. This is the basis of most of the air display rules that are written to prevent you crashing into the crowd. I know you are simplifying the problem to indicate that, in any case, this likelihood is low but it is not showing the full story. This is, again, the limitation of statistics.
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics - Mark Twain.
04-09-2006, 11:39 AM
#32
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
Eddie's technique is not perfect and all comprehensive, but I think it's pretty good at what it was intended for: a simple, rough look at probabilities of injury. What I think it is best at and most useful for is comparing turbine powered aircraft to other types. That is precisely why all this nonsense of folks saying "but there might be 20 people at the field, not just the pilot" does not matter. That applies to a turbine powered plane, a glow heli, or an electric foamie.
Eddie, I figured out my weighted average technique... and it give the SAME ANSWER! I also noticed that in the Excel sheet you said that the probability only registers if the speed is > 25 mph, but the logic has 20 mph. I also have a few minor comments on the PowerPoint. I am at work now, I'll send it to you when I get home.
Eddie, I figured out my weighted average technique... and it give the SAME ANSWER! I also noticed that in the Excel sheet you said that the probability only registers if the speed is > 25 mph, but the logic has 20 mph. I also have a few minor comments on the PowerPoint. I am at work now, I'll send it to you when I get home.
04-09-2006, 12:18 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ORIGINAL: Woketman
What I think it is best at and most useful for is comparing turbine powered aircraft to other types.
What I think it is best at and most useful for is comparing turbine powered aircraft to other types.
I will plot that path on top of the turbine path and compare the two..
What do you think, the probabilities are of an 1/3 scale guy hovering 30-50 away are.. ?
Here is a plane same weight as mine, with a meat grinder on the end.. hahah
04-09-2006, 02:06 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
..There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli ..
.. not that i agree of course..
04-09-2006, 02:18 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
Yeah, but Disraeli is dead, one more statisitc supporting the theory that 100% of lives end in death.....
oops...forgot the smiley face...
oops...forgot the smiley face...
04-09-2006, 06:47 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
so what you are saying is that if i get hit by a plane or not im gonna gie someday....bummer
04-09-2006, 09:45 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ORIGINAL: seanreit
I don't know, living a long time is possible:
http://election.cbsnews.com/stories/...n1434670.shtml
I don't know, living a long time is possible:
http://election.cbsnews.com/stories/...n1434670.shtml
Now that's a big bowl of soup. [:'(]
04-09-2006, 09:48 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ORIGINAL: siclick33
That depends on the 'statistical' likelihood of the direction of failure. If you assume that the model is either pointing towards you or away from you (and my models only truly 'point' at me for an extremely short duration on each circuit) and the model failure direction exhibits a Gaussian distribution (for example) then I am not that likely to get hit at all (thankfully). If this same distribution is assumed when flying away from me then I am even more happy.
My whole point of mentioning this is that you can easily reduce the probability of hitting yourself (or someone near you) by the way that you fly and the way that you position the model. This is the basis of most of the air display rules that are written to prevent you crashing into the crowd. I know you are simplifying the problem to indicate that, in any case, this likelihood is low but it is not showing the full story. This is, again, the limitation of statistics.
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics - Mark Twain.
Because the plane takes off and lands on the same runway, this mean %50 of the time its pointing
towards the pilot, and %50 of the time its point away and because of that I can neglect direction of travel.
towards the pilot, and %50 of the time its point away and because of that I can neglect direction of travel.
My whole point of mentioning this is that you can easily reduce the probability of hitting yourself (or someone near you) by the way that you fly and the way that you position the model. This is the basis of most of the air display rules that are written to prevent you crashing into the crowd. I know you are simplifying the problem to indicate that, in any case, this likelihood is low but it is not showing the full story. This is, again, the limitation of statistics.
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics - Mark Twain.
How do you crank the human factor into a spread sheet? Some will not know it's coming, some will stand there like a deer in the headlights, and some will get the hell out of the way! Lee
04-09-2006, 10:07 PM
#43
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
The Ed-man was trying to keep it simple. It is just the probability of a random out of control plane hitting that random 5 square feet. There is no move out of the way or not move out of the way. It is simply a tool for making comparisons between jets and other models. Nothing more, nothing less.
04-10-2006, 04:42 AM
#44
RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
What is neat about this is once you get a model set up you can plug in any kind of plane, for an apples to apples comparison between plane types.
You can argue the absolute values of the probabilities, but the RELATIVE values between plane types will be very compelling I think
You can argue the absolute values of the probabilities, but the RELATIVE values between plane types will be very compelling I think
04-10-2006, 05:07 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ok here we go iv got it...how many people are hit by a plane every year......how many flights are there per year...iv been flying for 5 years and have never even heard of some one getting hit....whereas this makes for some very interesting conversation the only restriction i could think to put on jets is location.....noise first...cause lets face it they are loud... then fire hazard for obvious reasons...both are good reasons not to fly at some fields.....but totally subject to location...ya know common sense stuff like that
04-10-2006, 07:26 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
I've seen at least 10 people get hit (not jets) in the last 33 years and know of many more. Some with the worst of all out comes like Adam Kirby and that heli guy in Texas. People get hit, just not with jets in-flight (so far, except for Terry's wife at Fla Jets '99, but that was a rolling plane on an aborted takeoff).
04-10-2006, 08:35 PM
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
ORIGINAL: Woketman
The Ed-man was trying to keep it simple. It is just the probability of a random out of control plane hitting that random 5 square feet. There is no move out of the way or not move out of the way. It is simply a tool for making comparisons between jets and other models. Nothing more, nothing less.
The Ed-man was trying to keep it simple. It is just the probability of a random out of control plane hitting that random 5 square feet. There is no move out of the way or not move out of the way. It is simply a tool for making comparisons between jets and other models. Nothing more, nothing less.
That is unless I happen to be at a Jet Rally! Lets face it the only spreadsheets that really matter are the ones held close by the insurance industry. A fatality is going to happen, and at the end of the day all you can do is hope you are not involved one way or the other. My guess is the figure is about 1 in a few million, and that's why the AMA’s insurance underwriters are still willing to take the risk.
Lee H. DeMary
AMA 36099
04-10-2006, 08:49 PM
#50
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RE: Calculated probabilities of getting hit with a turbine plane
Lee, it is a tool for comparisons between different types of models, NOT absolute probabilities fo someone getting hit. And don't forget: it is WAY conservative! It assumes that the plane crashes on every single flight!