Originally Posted by
mike1974
I do agree with much of what you said. I do find it hard to believe that commercial planes traveling at a high rate of speed can accuratly tell exactly what they saw all the time.
Mike, seeing things is actually not that difficult. It's relative. Sure, if we're nose to nose closing at a combined velocity of 1200 knots, it's tougher, but even then we can and do regularly note trends (like if your squadron buddy is trying to cheat a couple degrees of turn before the merge in an ACM practice engagement). I've flown hundreds of hours on low levels, never less than 360KIAS, mostly at 420 to 480, and it's not hard to see birds and such. And yet despite that, we can't always avoid them, and therein lies the risk to manned aircraft. While eye witness accounts of events are often the weakest part of criminal cases, the more trained the observer, the stronger they become. Some random stranger observing a criminal act in a store vs. say an off duty FBI agent. I would surmise that drone sightings by airline and military pilots are viewed with great credibility given the training and experience necessary to achieve those positions.
As for the zero comment, the reality is the US major carrier safety record has been zero for a number of years - despite millions of flights. I'm not going to quote exact numbers, but I do have them somewhere, as I researched the information for a presentation I give on operating discipline and safety. That's what leads me to say that the public rightfully should expect the encounters to be zero. Having been on both sides of the fence - military aviation / aviation safety programs and a hobby flier myself, I believe the number can and should be zero. There's really no valid excuse for an airline pilot to ever see a non-commercial sUAS anywhere, let alone in the airport traffic area.