The tail area doesn't need to have more lift than the wing. It has the leverage of the tail moment arm to help ampllify it's effect. SO it comes down to how the lift of the tail changes in a non linear manner as it did in the case of my rubber model with the tucking problem. At some point it went from a generally positive pitch stability manner to where the older strongly cambered stabilizer generated enough extra lift that it overpowered the wing. Changing it to a lower camber choice ensured that the tail lift could not achieve that level of magnitude again and so a positive, but undoubtedly variable, positive pitch stability resulted.

You're also reffering to the older concept of the AC of the wing moving about. The way I understand it these days is that the presently accepted way to deal with the pitching moment is to consider the AC as being constantly at the 25% chord point and then describing a pitching moment to deal with the torquing effect. I'm not sure when this changeover took place but the engineering types that hang around here explained this in a couple of threads a year or so ago.