ARFs from China
 

I wonder how the supply of cheap ARFs from China will be impacted by this http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28037960

RE: ARFs from China
 

I can tell you the answer - or at least the beginning of it.

Already there are a number of ARF makers closing or closed and customers are paying for goods and not receiving them - or receiving the lowest possible quality due to the factories trying to cut costs.

The City mentioned had one particular company (I won't mention Aaron Liu's name or Zansheng airplane Model Factory - oops I just did) who recently took me for a small amount of money and at least one other company for (I have been told) about US$40,000 - there are no doubt others. - Now I at least got product - it just wasn't of acceptable quality.

That is a classic example of what will happen - the poor quality manufacturers will be the first to go out of business, then the lesser known ones etc. But in the process they will be desparate and their "business principles" won't stop them from taking orders and money then disappearing.

The Beijing Expo in October had VERY low numbers of supliers displaying and of buyers buying. Factories that previously had agreements with distributors are now selling to anyone that wil place an order. This is not the case with all companies but it is happening for sure.

That doesn't only apply to ARF's - it also applies to Engine manufacturers and accessory manufacturers.

Now - Where will it end up?

1st - There is already turmoil and factories are juggling for survival (that is not necessarily a bad thing - that is called healthy competition and it should reduce the costs to the distributors). That situation wil only increase.

2nd - There is already a number of dishonest manufacturers that are either reducing their quality significantly or just taking the customers money and disappearing (Make sure you know EXACTLY who you are dealing with). that situation will also only increase.

3rd - Companies are already closing

4th - The world pricing on raw materials is droppping - plastics feeds, wood, metal, and labor costs - all are dropping in value now so prices should also drop.

5th - There is already less honoring of exclusive distributorships (that will increase) the competition at wholesale level will be more intense - that means there will be plenty of bargains for you all to get hold of but it also means that some of the wholesalers wil also close their doors or merge.

6th - in a few years, the world economy will get better again and we will all be back in utopia :D

Steve
[link]http://www.ydmodels.com.au[/link]

RE: ARFs from China
 

Those that have ambition and building skills will have. Those that do not will learn or not have. I'm glad I'm getting my Brodak Oriental ARF C/L this Xmas. It may not be available next year. Some members are going to soil themselves when they receive a "box of sticks" from which they have to build or, heaven forbid, pay $20.00 for a set of plans and go from there. The Chineese ARFs have no doubt brought a large segment of the younger "I want it now" video game generation into the hobby. The old build and fly guys like me will survive but it's going to cost us more. Does anybody out there think they could build a 55" Oriental for $109.00 including the $20.00 for plans?[:-]

Bill

RE: ARFs from China
 

Maybe it will clear out some of the crap that's being produced out there and let the great arfs shine thru.

RE: ARFs from China
 

Fortunately, I'm about done with my ARF purchases; at least for the upcomming year. I almost purchased a World Models Ultimate 40, but the Great Planes version came at a better price. So, I have a couple builds to get out of the way. Everything else I'll have to fix and fly as needed. Who knows, maybe all this could help the used market.

NorfolkSouthern

RE: ARFs from China
 

several years ago i built the brodak cl profile oriental from a kit. the kit was around $78.00. plus the paint, covering for the wing. i had that much in it easily. we all gripe about arfs but if aussiesteve is right we all may be crying the blues for next few years about some items mentioned
i just recently bought a receiver ready edf fan jet and had nothing but problems with it. its boxed up right now and is going back to the vendor. they have been real nice about it. because of the size of the jet it came with 70 mm fan unit for use with a 14.8 volt 4 cell lipo battery that came supplied with the model. the esc in it is some off-brand not designed for that voltage battery. it says right on the esc "2-3 cell lipo" meaning its for 3 cell 11.4 volt batteries. i also found that motor in fan unit is also not designed for 14.8 volt batteries. a buddy of mine had the simular problems with another one of their edf jets. the vendor is aware that manufacturer in china is cutting corners and is trying to remedy the problem. but its getting to the point where i'm not wanting to buy on-line anymore.

RE: ARFs from China
 

The scary bit is that I think you will see stories like yours increasing - not only in airframes but engines and accessories too. I know that I am already seeing signs of desperation from suppliers of airframes as well as engines and am very glad that I have my own in-house QC process because of that. The rejection rate is definitley increasing (Before the customer sees the product).

All I can say is "Buyer beware -VERY aware" and very carefully consider who you buy from. There will be some great bargains available on line but there will also be plenty of rip off merchants emerge or at least become more active too. My advice is to buy from reputable suppliers with local contact details unless you are prepared or experienced to take the risk. If those of us who are experienced in dealing with "Rip off Central" get burnt, what hope does "Joe public" have of being always successful.

RE: ARFs from China
 

that has been happening for a while now. look at all the junk on ebay, w/ the outrages shiping prices. it has gotten progressivly worse the last 6 months or so.

RE: ARFs from China
 

one bright spot is that thanks to the electronic age, when one of the bad guys rips somebody off, the WORLD will know in seconds. before when somebody got ripped off. by the time we would tell a freind who would tell a friend, who would tell a friend, it would take months or years before word spread. now if it happens we can jump on here and spread the word

RE: ARFs from China
 

My company is a very large importer of food products from thr world market . We were lucky that we always imported quality and that is why this new "quality issues "from China is no surprise . We knew who the bad ones were and we know where they still are the retailers who dont care what they bring in .
The small companys are going under because quality is now getting tested , more will go out as we speak .
As far as RC , you can go to ebay now and see direct shippments sellers to you the rc consumer willing to sell you one plane at a cost of $100 shipping .
The original CMP copy of the Fw190 is for sale for $80(starting bid) with $100 shipping lol .
Buyer beware is correct , its not even close to being over , India has a chance to emerge but by the time they do , China will have it all figured out once again

RE: ARFs from China
 

yes, but on some of these RCU forums (one in particular) if you bash or say something bad about a vendor or companys products you will get some real tongue lashing replies. for some reason these people are very protective of these vendors or companies. i mentioned on one forum about the problems with my edf jet(and i mentioned the vendors name) and the vendor is doing me good on the return and replacement . but just mentioning their name i got some sarcastic replies.

RE: ARFs from China
 

Buying arfs has always been a crapshoot, They just tightened up the slots somemore ! I do pity the guys that can't look at an arf and know what needs fixing though. There are gonna be a few more first flight disasters out there...

RE: ARFs from China
 

All this means is that prices will continue to climb in the long run to keep the few remaining companies in business.

Fewer companies = less competition = higher prices.

All of this stuff comes from Asia already and the Chinese are the biggest manufacturers of RC components and items.

RE: ARFs from China
 

That is the situation exactly, opjose.

NorfolkSouthern

RE: ARFs from China
 

Either the situation will get better in China or wholesalers will shift to new cheap labor sources like India or Vietnam of all crud sake!!! BH Models are getting better, VQ models always were pretty good and Hobby People can't bring them in fast enough.

Of course if things get any worse here....and indications are there (The next round of forclosures is coming, home values are still dropping, bank/wall street execs are stealing more than ever and unions are still unwilling to suck it up)..... we may be the new cheap labor source! And then who'll buy ARFs????

Mike

RE: ARFs from China
 

Well we are all right and wrong at the same time . Let me explane - in economic history typically and so predicably that its taught this way in most schools demand increases and cost can increase .Now remember in reality when demand increases the manufactuer typically can buy at a higher rate , get a better cost , run more efficiency with less line changes ect (remember typically ) please dont give me the one in 100 example .
Ok -now when yuo look at the last 12 months demand has not increased virtualy on anything , rc planes , engines , cars ect , houses , real cars ect .
yet in many cases cost continued to rise and still do why ??? its called an over-inflationery depression !!!! yes the news media is afraid to say it but when you have cost go up based on a pertrolium society that contains oil in every thing we touch , then you have 25% of China GNP going for enviormental issues (iin the past it was under 10%)then you have companies in China saying I dont want to fool with the new regualtions ect this all takes cost up . BUt demand did not go up , because wages in the USA , money value , security , and the job market was going down . So you have less disposbale income as a result for all the goodies we love at the end of the day . When fule was at $4.00 and god knows we all need fuel what did we do ??? we bought less , demand went down ,,,,, but again Opec did not respond until they felt we were really seriuos about useing less , then they finally humored us in the states and they let there belt buckles out for a few months so we can enjoy the holidays with lower fuel cost while the entire time there contrys pay .34 to .69 a gallon lol !!!! so while they meet to decide how to keep fuel cost higher (lol) our hobby and way of life hangs in the balance .
See the world was sitting back and watching , yes Watching the biggest greatest nation that has always helped everyone they watched us take an econminc hit until it hit there pockets .Unfortunitly its only temporary until we learn to be indepenant and find our own source of fuel we will always see these issues .
China was not prepare and retailers in the USA that rely so heavily are also not prepared for what is happening .
We all lose in the end , the kit builders who say "told you so "well there the same guys who wont pay $300 for a skyshark kit , the ARfs guys who expect kit built quality that simply dont know how to fix an arf , well they will get out of the hobby .
and the rest of us well we keep buying and storeing our favorite kits and arfs for the next 10 years , lol , we will sit back build , fly and have fun !!

RE: ARFs from China
 

Very interesting thread. Thanks for posting that link.

I wonder what the future will look like for ARFs in a short year's time. Decent ARFs sure exploded the availability of planes to the RC community.

Frank

RE: ARFs from China
 

I think short term it will surely mean higher prices , its at leaste the big guys sure seem to be taking it that direction .
With fule coming down ocean freight is way down , so they cant blame it on transportation !!!

RE: ARFs from China
 

Is ocean freight costs coming down? So quickly?

Frank

RE: ARFs from China
 

So are we going to bail out all those chinese companies too???????????

RE: ARFs from China
 

speaking of bailouts!

RE: ARFs from China
 

IAMKAOS: Be ready for when the Japanese automakers put out something similar. Except this time, there won't be an American company to compete with! We based the American economy on home equity, credit, and consumer spending. Then, we flushed our manufacturing base down the toilet. People felt rich because they could get that loan from the bank, which they spent on that big Hummer until oil prices took to the skies like the Chinese ARFs we're discussing here. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. Asia will be the next OPEC after the great Boeing selloff.

NorfolkSouthern

RE: ARFs from China
 

yes. its tragic what's going on in this country. there are foreclosed homes all around my home. one of my co-workers lost his home. repo's on automobiles has gone up 50% or more in some states. that picture was e-mailed to me by one of my flying buddies and the receipent header on the mail of had hundreds of screen names it was sent to and forwarded on with many comments . many thought it was amusing ...you did not. if they bail them out what good will it do if no one is buying cars. it will be money wasted. it will be back to where it started. 3 millon workers getting laid off would be tragic but the bailout is a bandage...not the cure. i worked in the ups and downs in construction in florida for 25 years so i know about layoffs.

RE: ARFs from China
 

IAMKAOS: The "bailout" (loan, actually) has more to do with a long term investment in our own manufacturing and infrastructure, as well as having a home-based company that will allow future profits to stay domestic. My take, is that the treasury bailed out their banking buddies but could care less about the blue-collar workers, even when they don't really get paid any more than the ones who work for the foreign companies. The politicians need to wake up, and look hard at what made the United States what it was before, and where it's headed. People are drawn to beliefs and stigmas. That attachment is proof that they are gullible, especially when the American companies are turning out vehicles that recently have been proven to be among the most reliable in the business. If it weren't for some of the policies that encourage the wasting of meaningful jobs and industries, then this thread may never have been started in the first place.

NorfolkSouthern

RE: ARFs from China
 

yes , to the question is ocean freight down , its coming down and continues to do so .
American job , infrastrucure , factorys ??? I dont think so the , Unions -the great unions that once protected the meek and humble now pay 90% of the workers salarys when there unemployed and they dont have to move to another state to take a new auto job , they can keep collecting .
Unfortunity I think the lawmakers will try to let the car industry fail so that the union contracts can be renegotiated