Hal you are ok until you say..

Note> when tail lift is increased the neutral point moves back......

The Neutral Point (NP) is just areas for the most part. It shows up in the slope of the Cm vs Cl curve which is dCm/dCL. In an airplane with an all moving tail such as the F-4 and F-15 the slope of the curve (and NP) is the same regardless of the deflection of the horizontal tail. You do get a big moment change but also a corresponding lift change that makes the curves the same.

My very first job in the aero dept for McDonnell Aircraft Co. was reading the slopes of several hundred curves from a wind tunnel test. Little did I realize that the next 35 years would be doing the same thing off and on.

But since for moment balance about the CG (no matter where it is) if you want the same airplane to fly level after you have introduced a positive angle on the tail (which is just like moving the horizontal on the F-4) you have to change the moment arm of the tail (smaller) and wing (larger) to make the aero pitching moments about the CG the same. The easiest way to do that is to move the CG aft. It will make the airplane a little less stable but we fly with a lot of excess stability for the most part.

In the case of the first Cap indeed the tail lift seems to be not changing the same as the wing lift (moments and all included) but it seems that the tail lift angle of attack is being changed by something. Since the total angle of attack the tail sees is just the airplane angle of attack plus downwash effects with angle of attack and perhaps a burble from the cheek cowls (Tall Paul) it would seem the tail lift is being changed by one of the above.

The fact that the airplane is apparently behaving OK through the rest of the flight envelope would indicate the balance of tail and wing forces and moments are OK, mostly.

Questions, comments??