So Ben... what you are saying is that ballooning is a side-effect of slow pitch recovery rate combined with moderate damping (the forward CG position)? Am I interpreting that right? That alone wouldn't account for ballooning I would think... maybe in combination with ground effect.

I would expect a lifting tail to stay in the air like the main wing due to ground effect. The downward-lifting tail would not have that ground-effect bouyancy though... lifting the main wing and leaving the tail where it is... pitching up that aircraft. Maybe that's it.