Jim, I completely agree. You have to have a place to start. I'm playing with some tools to figure out the MAC but so far they all say that all of us are too tail heavy so I must be doing something wrong.
In your scenario above, nose heavy with added pos. wing angle would result in more pull to canopy when wing is unloaded. If the problem gets worse you know it was the wrong adjustment.
My CG feels pretty good to me esp. after moving it back a little. I can hold altitude inverted better than anything I've flown yet. Responsive but not toucy or mushy. Inverted 45 drops nose a little more than I would like but close to 'pattern standards. But its all relative which is why the CG check is not a definitive test by itself.