We occasionally hear of people succeeding on thier own...

We more often hear the people who tried it on thier own who took home a bag of busted balsa.

Odds are in favor of you breaking it if you don't have help... even with the simulator.

Without simulator, about 95% chance you'll break it without the aid of an instructor. With simulator that goes down to about 60%. Get an instructor to go over the plane and trim it out, and use the simulator (just one flying lesson) your odds go to 90% success. Get 10 lessons, and you have 98% chance of doing a successful solo flight.

You can't get much better than the 98%... beginners doing solo seem to want to break it for some reason.