How do you determine how much thrust you need?
Choosing a propeller is really more about testing than about theory.
There really isn't anything like a formula for thrust that works worth spit for our models and engines. You determine most everything about what prop you need by sticking one on your engine and doing two things.
You run it up on the ground and tach it. If it's turning too fast, no value flying it. You decide about the "too fast" by looking at the mfg's specs on the engine. You want to prop the engine to turn any prop on the ground just under the recommended optimum rpm.
Then you fly it and see how it flies on your chosen airframe. Your model loads the engine however it's going to load it. The engine mfg's got no idea what their engines can be hung on. They do know a way to help you adapt their engine to any airplane. They give you an optimum rpm.
Given the optimum rpm and those two tests, you can have a chance to match the engine to the airplane. And you'll have a chance to adapt the airplane to perform more like you want.