Most likely the oil, however if you are in Jersy, and out in the cold, along with trying to handstart, I suggest you are over-choking and creating a flooded condition.

Here's a trick that we used when I lived in the Chicago-land area and we were out ski-flying in the winter.

Take a small bottle, fill with half glow fuel and half GASOLINE. Prime with that mixture and start normally. Engine started down to 20* (my personal lower limit) just like on a nice 85* day. Gasoline's flash point ( the lowest temperature at which vapors above a volatile combustible substance ignite in air when exposed to flame ) is much lower than methanol.
That will also help clear that congealed after-run oil which clogs up everything. Even here in the humid South East TX area I never -now- use that stuff. Use a good fuel with at least some castor in the fuel, and a few squrits of light anti-rust oil every so often and your engines can be thrown in a box, then start right up after several years. Another myth of RC-- After-run oil!