ORIGINAL: mwick
I don't believe it is a matter of turn around or pre turn around. What has happened in the same time frame is the advent of IMAC, essentially splitting the competitive community in two. When a flyer gets to the point they want to compete he has a choice in precision aerobatics.
He can take the same plane he flys at the club fly-in, local big-bird, or a friend's club and with some setup and trimming can fly an IMAC schedule that doesn't require a specific purpose plane to be competitive.
His practice routine consists of rolls and snaps, rolling turns, etc, much more fun than trying to draw a square or a six-sided loop on center. When he goes to a contest, it is a much lighter atmosphere, with people joking about zero's on a maneuver, flying their planes after the last round and staying past dark just to talk with everybody. If he performs a well-executed spin, but is off center, he is rewarded with a good score, not hammered because he missed center.
I also found it interesting that the age group at the last IMAC contest was generally 20-40, the demographic that pattern seems to be missing, and, at least in theory, the age group with the most demands on their time.
Pattern is demanding in terms of practice time and specific purpose planes. It appeals to a small group of perfectionists. I wouldn't forecast any growth in pattern and perhaps pattern should be reserved for those who strive to be the best and have the time and resolve to pursue it.
P.S. Brett if your reading this, you need to be out practicing the six sided loop.
I would agree with your assessment if it were about 6 years ago. However, IMAC is not as you describe, at least not in the Southwest. I switched from pattern to IMAC about 6 years ago (actually the southwest JR SCAT series). Now, I am interested in starting pattern again. I enjoy precision aerobatics of all types and I have found that IMAC emphasizes different elements than pattern. One is not better than the other, but they are different. I think if you really look at what is going on in IMAC, you will find that the contests are extremely competitive and intense.
The thing that appeals to me about returning to pattern is that it will be more relaxing and it emphasizes focusing on details and finer points. My precision flying has suffered a bit in IMAC, but the degree of difficulty in IMAC is much higher. Someone once said that comparing pattern and IMAC is like comparing Ballet and Gymnastics. That's a pretty good way to look at it. I started off well in IMAC because I had the extensive pattern background. Now, I am a better overall flier due to the complex nature of the patterns in IMAC and I look forward to honing my geometry skills again.
As far as age group, I think a lot of the younger guys get attracted to the 3D capability of IMAC type airframes and the overall WOW factor. That probably won't change anytime soon. But if a guy is truly serious about competitive aerobatics, then sooner or later he is going to fly pattern.
Steve Hannah