RE: Historical membership figures?
I think your right too Doc. And I don't think it's the people flocking to Wallyworld or flying Team Airhogs making any kind of effect on the AMA, because they were never part of the org in the first place. They are the trees that fell in the woods with nobody around. Yeah the AMA will take em, but they've never had impact.
But I think one of biggest effects of downturn if the fact that noise issues are now a thing of the past. Also wing loading is also a big factor. It used to be you had to keep building them big to get the right wing loading that makes the plane fly it's best. But now with these new and lighter building techniques, bigger is no longer better. Add the 2.4 ghz radios into the factor and what used to be a drive the field, is now a drive down the road to a park, schoolyard or right out the back door.
Bottom line is that you can have just as much fun now with a much smaller plane in a much smaller area with a much lower cost. Hopefully the AMA's new e-ticket coming this Jan will have some ummmph. But if it does not have some kind of lower price tier, it will most likely flop. The e-trend is going to a lower point in all facets and it's going to stay there for a while, thanks to our friends in the far east.