I spoke to Todd Witkoff this morning to bounce a couple ideas off of him. He made a suggestion that has turned out to be a very very good one! I am happy to announce that additional efforts to find a solution has paid off.
Todd suggested that it might make sense to find out from the Fire Marshall what exactly they were using to determine to go into a burn ban.
So I called them and asked.
The answer I received was that many items come into play (no surprise) but that by far the most effective means for determining it was what was called the Keetch-Byram drought index.
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png
It is a scale from 0 to 800 that determines moisture content across the counties. IT IS UPDATED DAILY.
He said that typically when the number is above 500 for a period of time, we go into a burn ban.
I said, what is the period of time. He said it varies, but typically it is 2 to 3 weeks, and that just depends on schedules to get people together, and weather changes, etc.
Based on the chart, I just picked a number between 500 and 600, 550 and decided that that was a fair number between the two that would determine our fate on a daily basis. Others concurred.
I brought this to other members here, and it has been widely accepted that this was a fair and reasonable way to assess a daily threat.
One suggestion came up which was, wait a minute, we could be above 550 for two weeks and still not be in a burn ban. There were two solutions that came up, Only initiate this number system during an actual burn ban, anything over 550, but below 600 and the wind was below 10 MPH. Turbine flying that day would be deemed safe. The argument being, on a NO WIND DAY, or lilttle wind, even at 570, if there was an accident it would likely be easily contained. Below 550 wind would not be a factor to the exception of sometimes, it's simply too windy to fly.
The DAILY UPDATE IS AVAILABLE AT this website for Texas, I am sure there is something similar for other states:
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdisummary.txt
I have taken this to the president of the club, and he said he is willing to support this to our club membership if I had support from my local jet community. I'm happy to say that so far of the waivered pilots in our area at least 7 have already said they are supportive of this solution as it totally covers the times when the county is in a burn ban, but it rained the day before and the day after, the number is say 440 as it is today in Travis county. Because the numbers can contrast so much across an entire county, we have collectively agreed to go by the mean average.
The other waivered holders just have not been contacted yet, but it is expected that they will agree with this solution.
I'm not sure, but I think this might be a solution that could be implemented at clubs everywhere. Along with taking into consideration the community of your club.
Sean