Peter,

Its a combination of both. You stay visually orientated with the jet, but you anticipate where its going based on your inputs. A classic example is the downwind leg with the sun close to the model. The model turns black regardless of what color it is, so its hard to see if its banked towards you or away. The pilot knows which way he's been inputting aileron, so he's better able, than the causal observer, to know if its banked towards or away from him. Also, in that situation pilots will frequently "S" turn the model on downwind leg to keep a clearer picture - both mentally and visually - of which way the model is heading...

Bob