My guesses to these questions:

What are the odds that this newb is ever going to make it to solo? 65% What are the odds he will ever fly a competition? 20% of the 65% What are the odds he will ever place in a national competition? 2% of the 20% of the 65%

What are the odds he will need/seek help? 100% What are the odds that the local instructor will fly mode 2? 95% what are the odds that he will share a plane with a friend once flying mode 1 and friend is mode 2? 0%

When in Rome, do what the Romans do!! The answer lies in your location, do what the locals do...

Kind of a Beta vs. VHS argument... myself, I fly full size and RC planes, & RC Helis... I think the mode 2 is a natural extension...

I will just bet you're not going to teach yourself to fly full size planes... I think you are rather foolish to fly RC without training. At least learn the rules so you can fly with others.