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Old 03-20-2005 | 07:20 PM
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Len
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From: Winnipeg, MB. Canada
Default RE: Future of Jets

My personal opinion is that we will see a few new airframes for the 44 size as more 44's are produced into the marketplace. There is a limited market for these as they require a somewhat more elevated level of modelling expertise to work inside the smaller airframes. However; their smaller airfield ops requirements are an attractive trait.

The 66 class will see a steady market and most innovation in airframes and engines will hit the market here first as this is still the largest installed user base of engines. The larger engines and airframes are going to remain a niche market as the money to develop in this upscale arena is vastly larger than that of the 66 class. Possibly there will be a small market aggression in this class in the USA, where larger sells better, bit not worldwide.

Market expansion will only really take place if the cost to build/buy one's first turbine and airframe drops to a level commensurate with the disposable income available. At the present time and for the foreseeable future it would seem that turbine cost will stay fairly level for the engine's class. There does not appear to be any major cost cutting development on the horizon for engines that are still going to be safe and of consistent operating quality. Airframes are another matter and the recent insurgence of good quality ARF's into the marketplace has added a new dimension to the market, where a non-modeller can toss enough money at a plan to become a jet pilot to have a good airframe and engine ready to fly in a few weeks time. The issue is the person's piloting and maintenance capabilities, but that is a question for another thread.

We may see axial turbines soon, but likely just as demonstration units and not production level for at least a few years. Probably the axial does not offer any major improvement to the units we are using today other than radial size, to justify the additional expense, so possibly these may never make production levels? I am not any sort of an expert, just my own opinion. I agree with Wayne that we will probably see production turbofans in a year or two... there is a demonstrated market for these units. Probably similar market size to the turboprop market?

Just like in the computer marketplace, where we envision software and then beg and plead with hardware developers to make the power so we can develop the software... we can envision airframes that are spectacular, but no one will build a production level unit until a powerplant exists to put into it! For example a very functional smaller F-14 could be made with two very narrow diameter axial turbines, for a small field op situation with more than enough power to be ballistic...the airframe would be in a 44 size by today's standards but have MW54SS or P-80 thrust out of each engine. This is an attractive plan but presently not practical for many reasons, not the least of which is that the engines do not yet exist! This would be a one piece (swept wing) transport in a present day automobile.

Sorry to prattle on...
Len