ORIGINAL: ckangaroo70
Based upon no scientific knowledge whatsoever. My guesstimation is that Doug will win with about 60% of the vote, and Horrace will make a good showing with about 35%, and write-ins will get about 5%, which will include Aliens like Alf, the local Dog Catcher, and Popeye the Sailor Man. Again these are just my own uneducated guesses. Horrace will get a few FREE votes just because his name is first on the Ballot. This will come from those who know nothing or have read nothing about either candidate, but feel it is their duty to mark a selection on the ballot and stick it back in the mail.
My guesses about the "whys" are similar to yours, but I think the end result will be Horrace with maybe fifteen percent of the vote, tops.