RE: Nexstar solo w/o Instructor...what are my odds?
Turn up the wind and dink around with it's direction in G2. Then get good enough that you can fly out a tank of gas every flight. And by that I mean that you wind up having to deadstick the sucker back when the engine quits.
Then remember that successfully flying a model isn't just twiddling the sticks. The first flights with the model won't be good if you don't know how to set the engine so it'll pull with strength for it's very first flight. You ain't gonna learn that from a simulator.
But go out and run the engine some. Learn how to get it started and how to take it immediately to a 4-cycle and then back to a steady, but rich 2-cycle. Then make sure it will go from idle to full without stumbling or just stopping cold. And make sure to set the idle low enough that your model will actually slow down to a slow enough speed that a beginner can actually have a prayer of landing without rekitting the model. Don't know what all that means? Haven't a clue what "slow enough" sounds like? Then your chances just went into the trash. Oh yeah, and make sure the engine will hold the idle without dying.
And you're not going to learn to setup your model's connectors etc from G2 either. Do you have the throws setup according to the model's specs? If you don't, you're dead before you start. If you've read a lot and actually got what was written and understand it completely, your chances still aren't better than 50-50.
By the way, you did mention having single engine flight time. That reduces your chances a lot. I've flown with a BUNCH of licensed pilots and to a man, they had the worst time learning to fly RC. Don't know what it is that screws them up, but screwed they are.
I figure 1 in 10
But the important thing is what you think. If you figured out everything I said and can do that successfully, and are confident, then maybe 3 in 10.
It's so very simple to find if there is an AMA field within driving distance, and getting good help is so easy, and help up front is so very worthwhile, bigtime worthwhile, that you really ought to think it over one more time.