Tony,
You want to make the currently achievable high performance electrics cheaper to obtain (by increasing the weight limit, allowing less expensive components to be used). My question is oriented at what will the cost of currently achievable high performance electrics be by the time your a rule were put in place, and what will be the achievable high performance electrics in 1, 2, 3 years?
When I stated IC would become obsolete, I think it will become obsolete in terms of peak performance in the near future (1, 2, 3 years??). Anyone choosing to use IC will be akin to anyone choosing to fly a sub 2M plane. Certainly glow will remain in the classes that are less demanding of performance for a much longer time period.
I think electric has hardly matured. I started following it closely in 2003 (as many did), and I was fortunate to make relationships with some of the best electric minds in the business, and in 2004, 5, 6, 7, they all said "we won't see another big jump in performance or reduction in cost for some time now". And they were wrong everytime, and basically gave up trying to guess where electric would be next year, or where the next jump would come from. I can't think of a motor, ESC, or lipo around in 2003 that has not seen at least 2 iterations of improvement since (in terms of lower weight, more power, or lower cost).
Compare a Jeti/Hacker 77 to a Spin 99 - huge increase in power handling. Look at a YGE80 - huge reduction in weight (close to 50%). Look at the software advances allowing greating power handling, and the software advances for downline braking (which allows much higher pitch props to be used for a far wider speed range).
Geared inrunners went from 14XL to 14 (and 13) XL comp motors at $800 to the more powerful Neu at $500. Plett went from the Extra 25 to the 30-10 to the 30-10 Evo. AXI went from the 5330 to the lighter 5330 F3A, and now the 5325. Viable outrunners are now available for ~$225 (winning the NATs in Masters in 2008). Even cheaper outrunners are being used, and while not reliable yet, they will be soon enough. The Shulman Fury prototypes are similar design and performance to the Evo, and production models will be substantially cheaper than the Evo.
Batteries are certainly the biggest contributor to higher performance. Comparing performance is not easy due to differences in how ratings are determined (C, capacity, continuous and burst power levels, etc). Many started with TP PL 10s4p5300s at ~$600 per set, and these were a huge change in peak power, lower weight, and lower price from the Gen 1 TP 10s4p 8000s. The current day TP PL V2 4350s (released within the year) are lighter still (10%) and make more power at ~3500 mah discharged (~10% more watts) and are cheaper (currently $330 per set). Lipos are not done advancing, and other chemistries will surpass lipo in the future.
Airframes.....more and more airframes are being developed exclusively for electric, and most are easily 4 oz lighter than than glow counterparts.
Cost is certainly relative - my Bravo w/ 1 set of TP PL V2 5300s, CC Phx 85HV, and Neu F3A motor is about $3,600 with everything except the servos. Some guys in F3A, Masters, Adv, Int, and Sport are spending more than that on the airframes alone - theie choice. As is the choice of an individual to buy anyone of several kits that would save ~$1,000. And the Bravo can easily stay <11lbs using heavier lipos and a heavier motor (saving more money). Extreme Flight will soon be releasing a 2M airframe with motor and ESC for <$1000, and based on first hand reports from top fliers, the airplane is competive at the highest levels in Masters (which is not much different than F3A prelim sequences, depending on the year).
Regards,
Dave
ORIGINAL: TonyF
Dave,
I'm not sure I understand your question. We are right now discussing rules proposals that would take affect in 2011. So that is less then 1 1/2 years. We can change the AMA rules in a fairly timely manner.
I disagree with IC becoming completely obsolete, especially in AMA. Check what is currently being flown in Sportsman & Intermediate. I saw a number of O.S. 1.40's and 1.60's. Obsolete in F3A and Masters but far from obsolete in the other classes. And electric has yet to win the WC. And my proposal may make it easier to do a Gas engine in AMA. If one develops that is competitive just think of the operational cost reduction in fuel!
Relatively cheap is frankly a relative term. Those in F3A have gotten used to much more expensive airframes. It just turns in to sticker shock for those contemplating entering the fray.
Electric in my opinion is pretty mature right now. I haven't seen a decrease in motor or ESC weight since I started flying electric. Not in pattern sizes. Batteries are one area where it may improve, but it hasn't in three years. They are more powerful, but not lighter. I do suspect that will get better.
It is true that pattern has a lot of competition now. That is why it is even more imperative to make it attractive.