I think anyone experienced with pattern currently flying IC is already considering when they will switch to electric. Yes, the transition from IC to electric would be easier if electric became cheaper. It is still a cost to transition for the IC fliers (and one they might have to make sooner than they are planning, if the rules change). There is a whole thread ongoing about a competitive gas setup being developed under the current rules (and to my eye, the anticipated performance and price looks to be extremely good).
http://www.rcuniverse.com/forum/m_9237216/tm.htm
The cost of electrics has continually decreased since 2003 with no changes in the rules. Why is it you think this trend is going to reverse?
Heavier electrics with no increase in performance are cheaper. Heavier electrics that have increased performance are more expensive. Pick a relative level of quality and the cost increase is very clear for motors, lipos, ESCs, etc from any of the manufacturers that produce small, medium, large, XL, etc., and the costs go up.
Regards,
Dave Lockhart
ORIGINAL: TonyF
- accelerating the obselescence of IC.
- achieving the goal of no bias in exchange for 5.4 kg electrics (more expensive) vs 5.0 kg electrics (cheaper).
Here's another area where I completely disagree with your predictions.
A 5.4kg at take-off rule may accelerate the decline of IC. Only because it will bring the cost of electrics down to the point where it becomes more attractive to switch. Not because they will suddenly become uncompetitive. The rule change may in fact allow for the development of competitive gas engines in the event, as their fuel is lighter allowing more leeway in the empty weight. I do believe that with no changes, we will continue to see more electrics and fewer IC models in pattern. That is how the entire hobby is evolving. But with no changes the costs will rise.
Your basic statement of heavier electrics being more expensive is in my opinion flawed. There is nothing in pattern that is less expensive when it is made lighter. Just the opposite.