Tony,
Good stuff.
I think you are clearly showing 2 things with the examples you have provided -
- increased costs with additional capability/performance
- increased cost with increased displacement (perhaps more appropriately power, to be inclusive of electric)
And there is always the cost of inflation along with maturation that is part of the reason for price increases (sometimes small, sometimes significant).
For the electric propulsion side of things, I think there will be two trends happening in the future, and which will be dominant is the question. I agree the "sport" line of products may not see much change in price, but they may have to in order to compete with the "budget" options from Hobby City. Or maybe they will cease to exist. On the higher end, there are several examples I am aware of that show a decrease in price with maturation -
- Compare a Castle Phoenix 85HV to the new 80HV. The 80HV is cheaper and has more features.
- Hacker has dropped prices across the board on all motors.
- ThunderPower has dropped prices across the board on all lipos.
Outside of decreases within product lines, new companies in the market are making equivalent products at lower prices - most obviously to me is the Neu F3A motor in comparison to the Hacker C50 comp. I expect at some point the C50 comp will be replaced/updated, and probably at a lower price to better compete with the Neu. I expect the Plett Evo will have more direct competition (same performance and cheaper price) from the F3A outrunner Hacker has been working on for 2 years, or the Shulman Fury which is under development (JAS?). Certainly the various products from China (direct brand or rebranded) are priced very aggressively, and some are having very good results (quite honestly, I can't keep up will all of the new motors and lipos coming from China).
To the point of lipos for pattern application, I talked in detail with Charlie Wang at Thunder Power during the time that the ProLite V2s were being developed. It was at that time that TP was realizing/concluding that changes made to improve performance for 3D helis, EDF, and pylon applications were not showing improvements for pattern applications (and other applications with relatively limited duration high bursts of power). That is basically the reason for the development of the current ProPower series (30C, 45C) and the ProLite V2s. I don't recall the exact cost, but the original Gen I TPs JAS used were I believe 5s4p 8000s x2, and cost quite a bit more than the ProLite V1 5300s (about $630 per set to recall) which cost quite a bit more than the V2s (originally about $500, now down to $420). And the Gen I TPs at competition power levels were being pushed extremely hard and had limited life. The cost for the lipos has dropped substantially as the lifecycle has increased substantially. I expect the cost of premium lipos such as TP will continue to drop to compete with the influx of Chinese brands increases, some of which are very close to the weight and power output of the TP, according to those I talked to (and perhaps some of these guys will chime in). Certainly the higher C rated lipos cost more than the lower C lipos...whether premium brands like TP, or cheaper options. And guys can certainly use the higher C lipos in pattern if they like, but, the benefits of 45C aren't really evident in applications with 16-18C limited bursts. Maybe at some point technology will change to the point that the "best" cells for both 3D helis and pattern applications will be the same, but that is not the current trend.
I think electric is early enough on the maturation curve that it is still in the declining cost stage. I expect the overall cost for electric pattern will continue to decline as it matures and volume increases, and then, as with all things, it will start to climb, and when it does, it will be cheaper at 5 kg than 5.4 kg (just like bigger engines cost more than smaller ones).
Regards,
Dave Lockhart
Team Horizon/JR/Spektrum/ThunderPower, Team Castle Creations
ORIGINAL: TonyF
I guess you could compare the C rating to nitro levels. Except when the lower nitro stuff stops being made. Original C ratings for LiPo batterries used in pattern were if I remember correctly, something like 6. They flew the models competitvely back then. You can't even buy them now.
Let's look at top line radios. Futaba 8GAP to 9ZAP to 14MZ. Each more capabilities, each more expensive.
JR Unlimited 8, PCM9, PCM10, 10S, 10X, 12X. Each more capabilities, each more expensive.
There have been medium range radios that have come out, ie. Futaba 10C, JR 9303, Airtronics SD-10, with the capabilities to use in pattern, and they have been lower cost. But almost all the winners in the upper classes use the top line radios.
Lets look at servos. JR 4000 series, to Super Servos, to current digitals. All greater performance, all more expensive then the last one. Same true of the Futaba line.
Now a look at engines. I started flying pattern with a K&B .61 engine. That was when 10cc was the limit. I then went to a ST G.60 BH, ST X.60, O.S. .60F-SR, .61F-SR, .61VF, .61VR, .61RF, .61 Hanno Special. They were all the same size and they were all more expensive then the previous. In 1.20's I went from the O.S. 1.20F to the Y.S. 1.20, 1.20AC, 1.20SC, all were the same size and more expensive. Then a size increase with the Y.S. 1.40FZ, 1.40L, 1.40DZ, all were more expensive then the previous, and they were all the same size. Hard to compare the cost increase with the 1.60DZ, 1.70DZ as they were larger motors. You can compare the 1.70DZ to the 1.70 DZ CDI. Same size, more power, more expense.
My prediction about electric systems goes something like this. There has been a reduction in prices in some areas of electric systems due to greater production as electric has begun to take significant market share from nitro. And as electric has opened up entirely new areas of the hobby, like the indoor arenas. This has been particularly true in the LiPo batteries. As market share stabilizes prices will do the same and then begin to rise in the upper end market as the technology matures and develops. The ''sport'' line of products, such as E-Flite, Rimfire and AXI will probably be pretty stable. I don't know for a fact, but I'll bet there hasn't been any price reductions in those line of motors since their introduction.