Building supplies will probably still exist, but they will be different, just as our current supplies are different than they were 10, 20, 30, and 50 years ago. What will probably change more than anything is the way we get them. Most of the big hobby mail orders have completely dropped standard scratchbuilding supplies. Smaller sellers and cottage industries are taking over the market. There is no real "Supermarket supplier" where I can order a set of plans, wood, covering , glue, foam, and all of the parts I need to complete a build. Even Tower and Hobby Lobby International lack spruce. The amount of building supplies hasn't dropped quite as fast as the availability of kits, but it will probably go next. On the other hand, foam and the building supplies associated with it are starting to become a bit more available.

I am guessing that the variety building supplies will drop off a bit in hobby shops next, and the more specialized things will start to fade away from the mainstream. (Color matched paints, special sizes etc.) THere will always be specialty supplies made by cottage industries, but they will be more expensive than the mass manufactured supplies we have now. I would also guess that things like covering will be available in fewer colors and styles. We might have only two or three types of covering available with a dozen brand names if we keep following current trends. I would guess that Dopes and paints will take the next big hit. You can't get the really smooth thinned laquers you used to because of the VOC content laws. The fomulas keep changing in most spray paints. I think that airbrushers will hang on a bit longer, as they can make their own mix of paint and thinner, but eventually we will all have to move over to new, safer paints. The really serious modelers will figure out what it takes to adapt and they will still turn out great models in spite of the different supplies.

Just as our supplies change, our methods will change too. We may do more molded parts. Carbon fiber and various foams may start to replace balsa in more and more models, in the same way that Monokote and plastic have replaced silk and banana oil in most of our models today. In the soaring world, a wooden model would be looked on as a museum piece, and most of the serious flyers have gone completely to composite models. Wood still makes its way into them, but not as the main ingredient. As electric replaces fuel in small models, the need for fuel proof finishes gives way to light weight methods and acrylic paint jobs. There will probably be fewer builders, as the cost of materials increases and the search becomes harder. Free Flight and Control line are already experiencing this. They are not mainstream, but the diehards are still enjoying flying them. Control line has stayed fairly accessable, as SIG and Brodak still cater to them. Free Flight has had some problems with the loss of Tan II , but they keep making and flying them. Eventually the masses will detune to whatever rubber is available and leave the few remaining bits of Tan II to the last few remaining top level competition flyers. For every AMA or FAI contest flight, there are dozens of flights in parks, club fields, abandoned parking lots and other similar places.

The old style of building will always be around, but it will be more of a link to the past than a mainstream hobby. I am sure that someday I will be standing in the pits at a fly-in watching carbon reinforced, blow molded foam, polycarbonate skinned ARFs fly with scratchbuilt foam and fiber planes and some kid will be looking at my Telemaster saying, "You had to attach that covering with an iron? ... What's an iron?"

Keep on building,
Dave