Most of us have a few kits stashed away. I have about 10 of my favorite models that are no longer in production. I typically build one every winter, so that means I will start the last kit build in 10 years lets say.

My question: in 10 years do you think that the majority of supplies (Ultrcote / Monocoat, fiberglass cowls, composite landing gears, tail wheels, ...) will still be available? I know some of the parts will be around to support ARF's, but as an example paint that matches covering is hard to find. I find that I have to travel to different stores to get what I need; Home Depot / Lowes for fasteners, Micheals for balsa.

Is it my crazy paranoid thinking, or is it time to stock up?

Remember, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that everybody's NOT out to get you!

Like everything, there are cyclic changes to any sport. If you owned a British sports car from the 60's you couldn't go to your local auto parts store to buy a new starter for it, but there ARE specialty shops that can get one for you.

So the stuff will always be around, some of it just may be more difficult to find.

But things like covering and glue will always be available. After all, they still have to make it to build and cover ARFs so the manufacturers won't NOT sell it to you.

Your crazy paranoid and I mean that in the nicest way!! 10 years is not long enough for a complete paradigm shift in terms of what we have now and what we have then in terms of "building" models. Woods, paint, fasteners, foam, will all be there. There may be addtitional products that make tasks easier in terms of connectivity and hookup like all the stuff dubro and othes come out with but the tried and true will still be there too. As far as the low tech stuff building wise, your fine.

Now electronics, that's a different story. Assuming your old enough, we've all seen the demise of the VCR and rise of the cell phone. The demise of the 8track, the rise and presently somewhat demise of the cd player and the rise of digital music to name only a few. Does anyone even buy a cd anymore, when you can get the 3 or 4 songs you like best for 3 or 4 bucks? In terms of Radios, that's what I find most interesting. I believe the features will keep coming . I test software and I didnt see the coming of the bullet proof features of 2.4. I knew another higher band would be good, but all the switching that goes on between rcvr and xmitter with all the failsafe features occuring in nano seconds. Nope

Stop worrying about it. The world is going to end in 2012. They said so on the History Channel.

Building supplies will probably still exist, but they will be different, just as our current supplies are different than they were 10, 20, 30, and 50 years ago. What will probably change more than anything is the way we get them. Most of the big hobby mail orders have completely dropped standard scratchbuilding supplies. Smaller sellers and cottage industries are taking over the market. There is no real "Supermarket supplier" where I can order a set of plans, wood, covering , glue, foam, and all of the parts I need to complete a build. Even Tower and Hobby Lobby International lack spruce. The amount of building supplies hasn't dropped quite as fast as the availability of kits, but it will probably go next. On the other hand, foam and the building supplies associated with it are starting to become a bit more available.

I am guessing that the variety building supplies will drop off a bit in hobby shops next, and the more specialized things will start to fade away from the mainstream. (Color matched paints, special sizes etc.) THere will always be specialty supplies made by cottage industries, but they will be more expensive than the mass manufactured supplies we have now. I would also guess that things like covering will be available in fewer colors and styles. We might have only two or three types of covering available with a dozen brand names if we keep following current trends. I would guess that Dopes and paints will take the next big hit. You can't get the really smooth thinned laquers you used to because of the VOC content laws. The fomulas keep changing in most spray paints. I think that airbrushers will hang on a bit longer, as they can make their own mix of paint and thinner, but eventually we will all have to move over to new, safer paints. The really serious modelers will figure out what it takes to adapt and they will still turn out great models in spite of the different supplies.

Just as our supplies change, our methods will change too. We may do more molded parts. Carbon fiber and various foams may start to replace balsa in more and more models, in the same way that Monokote and plastic have replaced silk and banana oil in most of our models today. In the soaring world, a wooden model would be looked on as a museum piece, and most of the serious flyers have gone completely to composite models. Wood still makes its way into them, but not as the main ingredient. As electric replaces fuel in small models, the need for fuel proof finishes gives way to light weight methods and acrylic paint jobs. There will probably be fewer builders, as the cost of materials increases and the search becomes harder. Free Flight and Control line are already experiencing this. They are not mainstream, but the diehards are still enjoying flying them. Control line has stayed fairly accessable, as SIG and Brodak still cater to them. Free Flight has had some problems with the loss of Tan II , but they keep making and flying them. Eventually the masses will detune to whatever rubber is available and leave the few remaining bits of Tan II to the last few remaining top level competition flyers. For every AMA or FAI contest flight, there are dozens of flights in parks, club fields, abandoned parking lots and other similar places.

The old style of building will always be around, but it will be more of a link to the past than a mainstream hobby. I am sure that someday I will be standing in the pits at a fly-in watching carbon reinforced, blow molded foam, polycarbonate skinned ARFs fly with scratchbuilt foam and fiber planes and some kid will be looking at my Telemaster saying, "You had to attach that covering with an iron? ... What's an iron?"

Keep on building,
Dave

"Stop worrying about it. The world is going to end in 2012. They said so on the History Channel."


Wow! There should be a lot of bargains available in 2011. Can't wait.

Only thing I would pick up as you stash away kits is fiberglass parts, mainly cowls. With fewer and fewer kits being built, and more and more ARFs supplied with fiberglass parts with pre-painted replacement parts available, I would guess business for the fiberglass parts suppliers has dwindled. If Fiberglass Specialties ever closed up shop it would make it difficult if not impossible to get parts.

Smithcreek, to your point, I do buy the fiberglass cowl and wheel pants as I share your concern with plane specific custom parts such as cowls, pants, gear, ...etc.

Cougdave, you are very insightfull about the future possiblities. As an example, I'm finishing a G&L Hobbies Extra with fiberglass fus and foam sheeted wings. I usually build a 'box of sticks' kit, but this was different and challenging.

Reminds me of the comment by Burt Rutan on the video I watched of him at the AMA convention this year...."I didn't see any balsa for sale at the convention...how the hell do you expect to learn anything and actually model without it?".

I'm sure soon someone will come in and say you can scratchbuild. But there's something really relaxing about kit building and something you can knock out quickly while stuck in think mode on a scratch build.

I've felt this scenario building up for a while. Every time I go to the LHS I look around and buy an extra something that might not be there the next time I need it. Specifically I'm starting to buy extra Golden Rods or a roll of Ultracote as they don't always have them there. Anything else come to mind that's a bit scarce these days?

Yep, whether or not there will be a hobby shop in 10 years is of more concern on my part!

You must not of heard. But you won't be able to build in 2020. We will all live in space ships and balsa dust/ca won't be allowed. There won't be any flying fields so it won't bother you anyway. Plus there will be android women that look and act exactly as you want. Who needs models.[8D]

Nutso

So are you saying there will be a new type of Hobby Shop in 2020? [X(]

Thank goodness for "flea markets"!!!! I continue to "build my stash" of kits, balsa and fabric covering. I have gotten some INCREDIBLE BUYS on a few kits and 15meter rolls of solartex ($3 each!!!!)in the past month. The few hobby shops I know of that are within an hours drive of me are worthless...to me anyhow. They only have small electric plane and heli stuff....tons of parts, etc, but thats not my main interest.

I tend to think in ten years that real wood kits and assoc. bldg supplies will be noticeably harder to obtain than they are today....just my opinion. The only thing that may slightly slow this trend would be as the "older" modelers pass and their "stashes" of kits, etc, become available.

Steve

Steve, you won't get mine! I'm taking them with me when I die, and all of my stash of tools, balsa, adhesives, R/C gear, etc . Lee

I've almost stopped going to hobby stores. All the independent local shops around closed up either due to economy or owners passing on. All we have left are a couple HobbyTowns and they never seem to have anything that I need.

The only shop around worth going to for builders is an hour away in New Hampshire. I drive up there a few times a year but for odds and ends its hard to justify not mail ordering (I know shame shame that attitude is what drove out the local guys )

We have the same problem in Central Oregon. Although there is a hobby shop in Bend (a 30-mile drive), they rarely have what most of us in our club need. Their mantra is that "oh, gee, is that out of stock? We can have it by next Thursday." The only good hobby shops are in the Portland metro area, at least a 3-hour drive. So, obviously, most order by mail. Which brings us to the chicken/egg question "Did the hobby shops close down because of mail order, or did mail order happen because local hobby shops didn't stock what hobbyists needed [&o]? Pretty easy to argue both sides on this one. Lee