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Old 02-22-2016, 10:35 AM
  #251  
Chris P. Bacon
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Originally Posted by porcia83
Hmm....WRAM show is this weekend, the AMA has a booth there and has talks planned throughout the 3 days.
Rough crowd there, I didn't suggest that venue for his own personal safety. Although Frankie and I occasionally disagree, I don't want to see him get hurt.
Old 02-22-2016, 12:30 PM
  #252  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Rough crowd there, I didn't suggest that venue for his own personal safety. Although Frankie and I occasionally disagree, I don't want to see him get hurt.
I guess they don't call it WRAM for nothing!
Old 02-22-2016, 12:34 PM
  #253  
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ba dump dump !!!!!
Old 02-22-2016, 03:04 PM
  #254  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Innocent lives saved by the skill and proficiency of a pilot who, after suffering a likely mechanical failure, landed the aircraft in the safest spot available at the moment, missing people and property on the beach, and giving his passengers the greatest chance of survival (shallow water, controlled impact).

More accurately, only available spot. Based on his altitude how much square area did he actually have to choose from?


Furthermore, FAA, DOT, NTSB, and others will examine this mishap in the finest detail and figure out why it happened, what could be done to prevent similar accidents in the future, and make changes to ensure enhanced safety.

They've already been doing that for decades, yet these accidents still happen regularly.

They also won't pull any punches about assigning blame, whether it's maintenance related, operations related, or pilot related. People and processes will be held to account for every aspect that led up to this event.

Contrast that with an incident where non-participating spectators had to dive for their safety and it's chalked up to a bad servo connector - but not a moment's examination of the pilot's decision to continue the takeoff despite the fact that the airplane was unable to hold centerline from the start of the roll. Or the decision to continue certifying the pilot/plane after two prior full loss mishaps? Or the decision to waive recommended crowd standoff distances? None of that gets looked at in an effort to get better - very much unlike the event in Hawaii.
First point - he made the landing in the best place available to him at the moment. In any flight there are regimes where there are fewer options than others. Not really germane.

Second point - the "they keep happening" - attached is the mishap rates (total, all types including non-injury) for four categories of operation...note the trend. That trend exists only because of NTSB / FAA / Professional culture of looking at every aspect of an incident. Minor up and down over the short term (because there's so few of them in the case of part 131 carriers).

Last point - had nothing to do with the point above. However, those are indeed examined...oftentimes discovered to be either something called "task pattern interruption" and/or "task saturation." Of note, it's all but unheard of except in general aviation - so don't know that your point is really all that relevant to commercial operations.
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Old 02-22-2016, 03:13 PM
  #255  
Chris P. Bacon
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Originally Posted by franklin_m
First point - he made the landing in the best place available to him at the moment. In any flight there are regimes where there are fewer options than others. Not really germane.

I'll maintain he had little, if any, choice where he went down.

Second point - the "they keep happening" - attached is the mishap rates (total, all types including non-injury) for four categories of operation...note the trend. That trend exists only because of NTSB / FAA / Professional culture of looking at every aspect of an incident. Minor up and down over the short term (because there's so few of them in the case of part 131 carriers).

Your chart is misleading because it doesn't include the total number operations. Perhaps the number of mishaps has declined simply because the operations has declined. Unable to ascertain that from the incomplete data you provided. Also, that's commercial operations only, right? What about GA?

Last point - had nothing to do with the point above. However, those are indeed examined...oftentimes discovered to be either something called "task pattern interruption" and/or "task saturation." Of note, it's all but unheard of except in general aviation - so don't know that your point is really all that relevant to commercial operations.
..
Old 02-22-2016, 05:23 PM
  #256  
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Originally Posted by porcia83
Just our of curiosity....this data collection scheme you think will be so helpful to the AMA, and purportedly help the membership in some way.....have you ever presented this to any club you have been a member of? I mean, if it would help the AMA membership in general, doesn't it stand to reason that it would help a club as well?

Did you ever pitch this to a club you were a member of, if not why? Wouldn't it be better to compile some data, even minimal data, to help folks understand the usefulness of this kind of data collection, rather than just talking about it?
Safety management systems (programs) are by their nature a centrally controlled, decentrally executed - in plain language they're top down vs. ground up. Isolated clubs tracking disparate data types, methodologies, standards, etc. don't achieve the goal of consistent reporting.
Old 02-22-2016, 05:25 PM
  #257  
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The news is reporting that a 16 year old boy has died as a result of the Heli crash in Hawaii .
Old 02-22-2016, 05:26 PM
  #258  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Your chart is misleading because it doesn't include the total number operations. Perhaps the number of mishaps has declined simply because the operations has declined. Unable to ascertain that from the incomplete data you provided. Also, that's commercial operations only, right? What about GA?
I used # of mishaps per 100,000 flight hours...standard measure that's been used for decades. I can assure you that the numbers get even better if you look at the total number of operations - part 121 / 135 operations have expanding significantly. I looked at that data for another reason not too long ago, and the it becomes even better news story if you look at mishaps / operations.

GA is consistently decreasing as well...just not as much
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Old 02-22-2016, 05:33 PM
  #259  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
First point - he made the landing in the best place available to him at the moment. In any flight there are regimes where there are fewer options than others. Not really germane.

I'll maintain he had little, if any, choice where he went down
Of course, just like hitting a drone at the inner marker on approach, not going to be many places to land.
Old 02-22-2016, 05:36 PM
  #260  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Rough crowd there, I didn't suggest that venue for his own personal safety. Although Frankie and I occasionally disagree, I don't want to see him get hurt.
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:04 PM
  #261  
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Old 02-22-2016, 06:28 PM
  #262  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Your chart is misleading because it doesn't include the total number operations.
As luck would have it, I found this in a Boeing study of commercial airline mishaps vs. both hours and sorties.

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Old 02-22-2016, 06:37 PM
  #263  
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Winston Churchill or Steven Covey...who do I think would give better advice? Let me think on that for a moment...I can take advice from:

(1) A statesman, member of Parliament, Lord of the Admiralty, someone who helped establish European unity, artist, historian, and author, seven honor doctorates, honorary citizen of the US, Nobel Prize winner, AND led his country through a life and death struggle & helped form an alliance that continues to this day

or

(2) Bachelor of Science and MBA, wrote three books, and college professor.

I'm going with number 1.
Old 02-22-2016, 06:43 PM
  #264  
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Here's one more for you Crispy:

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is the slogan of the complacent, the arrogant or the scared. It's an excuse for inaction, a call to non-arms. It's a mindset that assumes (or hopes) that today's realities will continue tomorrow in a tidy, linear and predictable fashion. Pure fantasy. In this sort of culture, you won't find people who proactively take steps to solve problems as they emerge."

- Former Secretary of State & Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell
Old 02-22-2016, 06:54 PM
  #265  
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Originally Posted by franklin_m
Here's one more for you Crispy:

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is the slogan of the complacent, the arrogant or the scared. It's an excuse for inaction, a call to non-arms. It's a mindset that assumes (or hopes) that today's realities will continue tomorrow in a tidy, linear and predictable fashion. Pure fantasy. In this sort of culture, you won't find people who proactively take steps to solve problems as they emerge."

- Former Secretary of State & Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell
Wow, just wow. He fixed it alright. Now where did they find those WMDs?
Old 02-22-2016, 07:25 PM
  #266  
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Anybody catch to nights episode of SCORPION well I sure hope that the FAA DEA HLS and all the alphabets Hundreds of drones flying drugs into Arizona from Mexico. One he leader drone was armed too.
Great advertisement for the R/C TOY Market ... Might sell another Million Drones.

Last edited by HoundDog; 02-22-2016 at 07:35 PM.
Old 02-22-2016, 08:13 PM
  #267  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Wow, just wow. He fixed it alright. Now where did they find those WMDs?
1 - might want to read up on Operation Avarice and Iraq's own 2009 declaration when the joined the chemical weapons convention

2 - regardless, unless there's something in the Constitution that I missed, SecState is not authorized to commit forces
Old 02-22-2016, 08:14 PM
  #268  
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Originally Posted by HoundDog
Anybody catch to nights episode of SCORPION well I sure hope that the FAA DEA HLS and all the alphabets Hundreds of drones flying drugs into Arizona from Mexico. One he leader drone was armed too.
Great advertisement for the R/C TOY Market ... Might sell another Million Drones.
Unfortunately, it's just as likely to influence all those young interns working on Congressional staffs and any number of folks in the media.
Old 02-22-2016, 09:12 PM
  #269  
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Originally Posted by HoundDog
Anybody catch to nights episode of SCORPION well I sure hope that the FAA DEA HLS and all the alphabets Hundreds of drones flying drugs into Arizona from Mexico. One he leader drone was armed too.
Great advertisement for the R/C TOY Market ... Might sell another Million Drones.


Originally Posted by franklin_m
Unfortunately, it's just as likely to influence all those young interns working on Congressional staffs and any number of folks in the media.
Every Night on the Local news there are News reports on how the Border patrol busted 3 or 4 Drug smugglers crossing the border both in vehicles at Ports of entry and today at some border spot they caught 10 drug mules each carrying a 75 lb back pack of drugs. They estimate they only stop between 10% and 15% of the drugs crossing the Mexican American boarder.

When the cartels smuggle tons of drugs at a time
Drones at least those today would be useless. For small time Operators doing Marijuana but Cocaine would be a much more viable commodity,
How far could a drone with 10 minutes flight time carrying a Kilo of Heroin or Cocaine get at 35 mph. 10 Minutes at 35 MPH = 5.83 miles or launched 1 mile south of the border and land 4.83 miles inside the USA max. If they did not go straight North but some where from 315 degrees to 45 degrees the area of possible landing would be approx 82 square miles of potential area North of the border. Very hard to cover with conventional border Patrol. No FAA number required when from Mexico or Canada.

Last edited by HoundDog; 02-22-2016 at 09:22 PM.
Old 02-23-2016, 03:30 AM
  #270  
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Originally Posted by franklin_m
Safety management systems (programs) are by their nature a centrally controlled, decentrally executed - in plain language they're top down vs. ground up. Isolated clubs tracking disparate data types, methodologies, standards, etc. don't achieve the goal of consistent reporting.
So the answer is no, as suspected. Just another theory cooked up for the AMA to subscribe to, without any practical evidence to support it's efficacy or need for that matter.

Absolutely no reason why someone like this can't be rolled out to a club, or group of clubs, or even region to gather data. None. But it would require work and communication and advocacy which is certainly different than posting anit AMA rhetoric non stop on RCU.

Last edited by porcia83; 02-23-2016 at 03:57 AM.
Old 02-23-2016, 04:09 AM
  #271  
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Originally Posted by Chris P. Bacon
Wow, just wow. He fixed it alright. Now where did they find those WMDs?
Ask the Kurds about Iraq's WMD's.

Mike
Old 02-23-2016, 04:18 AM
  #272  
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Originally Posted by franklin_m
1 - might want to read up on Operation Avarice and Iraq's own 2009 declaration when the joined the chemical weapons convention

2 - regardless, unless there's something in the Constitution that I missed, SecState is not authorized to commit forces

Powell Blames Himself, Others For Specious Iraq WMD Claims to U.N.

May 25, 2012

Former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell in a new book said he blames himself for not trusting his instinct and making what proved to be false assertions to the United Nations about Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction, Bloomberg reported earlier this month (see GSN, Feb. 17, 2011).
Powell's high-profile February 2003 prewar presentation to the U.N. Security Council included now-discredited claims that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had movable biological weapons facilities and was involved in a "sinister nexus" with al-Qaeda.
No evidence of active WMD production facilities or usable stockpiles have been found in Iraq following the U.S.-led March 2003 invasion.
"A failure will always be attached to me and my U.N. presentation," Powell writes in "It Worked For Me," a book that provides leadership advice. "I am mad mostly at myself for not having smelled the problem. My instincts failed me."
In his recently published book, Powell asserts "there would have been no war" in Iraq had then-President George W. Bush and his councilors understood that Hussein did not possess any functioning unconventional weapons. However, he lauded the fact that under Bush "we got rid of the horrific Hussein" government and toppled the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
The retired general also faulted U.S. intelligence officers for lacking the "courage" to alert him that he was receiving bad data on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction ahead of his U.N. appearance.
"Why did no one stand up and speak out during the intense hours we worked on the speech?” the ex-secretary said. “Some of these same analysts later wrote books claiming they were shocked that I have relied on such deeply flawed evidence."
Powell said he relied on the CIA to help develop his U.N. presentation but that he was not aware at the time that "much of the evidence was wrong" (Capaccio/Tiron, Bloomberg, May 4).



http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/powel...wmd-speech-un/
Old 02-23-2016, 04:22 AM
  #273  
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Originally Posted by franklin_m
Safety management systems (programs) are by their nature a centrally controlled, decentrally executed - in plain language they're top down vs. ground up. Isolated clubs tracking disparate data types, methodologies, standards, etc. don't achieve the goal of consistent reporting.
Cost/benefit analysis?
Old 02-23-2016, 07:29 AM
  #274  
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Originally Posted by porcia83
Just another theory cooked up for the AMA to subscribe to, without any practical evidence to support it's efficacy or need for that matter.
Suggest you look again at the safety statistics graphs posted above. Those are the "practical evidence" that support the efficacy of these programs.

As to need, suggest you look at the Colin Powell quote.
Old 02-23-2016, 07:30 AM
  #275  
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Here's something interesting.

https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=84810

Mike


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